Consumers’ reported chance of losing their job declined slightly this quarter but remains higher than before trade tensions started in early 2025. This elevated concern is concentrated among workers in sectors that are highly dependent on trade between Canada and the United States. These workers identified the following as top factors influencing their reported risk of losing their job:
- the outlook for the economy
- business conditions in their sector
In follow-up interviews, one person said, “I am concerned about the impact of tariffs and trade tensions on the labour market because if we have large-scale layoffs in our steel and auto industries, then it’ll have a cascading effect on the rest of the economy.”
Many consumers continue to expect tariffs to generate inflationary pressures
Consumers’ expectations for short-term inflation are little changed in the third quarter of 2025 and still above their pre-pandemic averages (Chart 9, yellow and green lines). Expectations for inflation five years from now moved up again this quarter but remain near their pre‑pandemic average (Chart 9, red line).
In follow-up interviews, some respondents mentioned that tariffs could cause prices in Canada to increase considerably. One person said, “Tariffs are causing a lot of things in Canada in general to just be more expensive than they [otherwise] would be.”
In particular, consumers’ views on tariffs are leading them to anticipate significant increases in motor vehicle prices over the next 12 months. Inflation expectations for vehicles, which rose significantly last quarter, remain as high as they were after the COVID-19 pandemic led to supply chain issues. “Vehicles for sale right now were bought [by car dealers] before tariffs came in place. Once the pre-tariff stock of vehicles is gone, then we will see a really big impact on vehicle prices,” one survey respondent said.
